Is ChatGPT really taking over search? What the data actually shows

If you've spent any time reading tech news lately, you've probably seen the headlines: "ChatGPT is killing Google Search," "The end of traditional search is here," or "Why Google should be terrified of AI."

It makes for a great headline. But is it actually true?

As website owners, marketers, and business operators, we need to cut through the noise and understand what's really happening. Your SEO strategy depends on it.

So let's look at what the data actually shows, not what the headlines want us to believe.

The current state of play: December 2025

The most comprehensive real-time tracking of AI versus traditional search comes from Ahrefs' AI vs Search Traffic Analysis, which monitors traffic patterns across over 71,000 websites. Their November 2025 data paints a clear picture:

That's right: ChatGPT currently accounts for just 0.25% of referral traffic to websites. Google, despite all the doom-and-gloom narratives, still commands nearly 40% of all website traffic and roughly 94% of the search engine market.

The combined traffic share of all AI assistants (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude, and Gemini together) amounts to just 0.29%. Traditional search engines collectively drive 41.75%.

Before Google fans start celebrating, there's important context to consider. The raw market share numbers don't tell the whole story.

ChatGPT's growth rate is impressive

While ChatGPT's absolute numbers are tiny compared to Google, its growth trajectory has been remarkable. According to SparkToro's research, ChatGPT's referral clicks grew 558% year-over-year through early 2025. Users also click external links 2.3 times more often per ChatGPT session than per Google session.

The Ahrefs data shows that ChatGPT averaged 11.9% month-over-month growth throughout 2025, compared to Google's average monthly decline of 3.3%. That's a significant differential, even if it's from a much smaller base.

Google's market share has actually dipped

For the first time since 2015, Google's global search market share dropped below 90% in early 2025. While that still represents overwhelming dominance, it's a notable shift for a company that had seemed untouchable.

The measurement problem

Here's where things get really interesting. Different research methodologies produce wildly different conclusions:

The discrepancy comes down to what you're actually measuring. Only about 30% of ChatGPT prompts are search-like queries. The other 70% involve writing assistance, coding help, brainstorming, and conversation—tasks people never performed in Google.

So when First Page Sage reports that ChatGPT has captured 9% of "digital queries," they're including a lot of activity that would never happen in a search engine anyway.

The expansion hypothesis: are users really switching?

The most critical research on this topic comes from Semrush, which analyzed 260 billion rows of clickstream data to answer a simple question: Do people use Google less after they start using ChatGPT?

Their answer? No, they don't.

Semrush tracked users for 90-500 days after their first ChatGPT session and found no statistically significant reduction in Google usage. Google usage slightly increased among ChatGPT adopters.

This suggests something that the "ChatGPT is killing Google" narrative misses entirely: these platforms serve fundamentally different purposes.

Different tools for different jobs

The data shows clear patterns in how people use each platform:

When someone wants to buy running shoes, they Google. When someone wants to understand the biomechanics of pronation and get personalized training advice, they might ask ChatGPT.

This pattern explains why Google's advertising revenue remains robust despite the AI chatter. The queries that make Google money (commercial and transactional searches) aren't the ones migrating to AI platforms.

What the industry experts are saying

There's a genuine split in expert opinion on where this all leads.

The bullish case for AI search

Ben Thompson of Stratechery has made the most articulate case for why AI represents a genuine long-term threat to Google. Applying Clayton Christensen's disruption framework, he argues that generative AI may represent a "disruptive innovation" that improves over time, while Google's product becomes "ever more bloated and hard to use."

Google's own leadership takes the threat seriously. CEO Sundar Pichai told employees in December 2024 that 2025 would be "critical" and urged them to "internalize the urgency of this moment."

The skeptical case

On the other hand, researchers at SE Ranking point out that Google still sends 300 times more traffic to websites than all AI platforms combined. AI traffic accounts for just 0.15% of total internet traffic, compared with organic search's 48.5%.

The scale difference is hard to overstate. Google processes roughly 14 billion searches daily. Even with its search feature enabled, ChatGPT handles somewhere between 37.5 million and 600 million search-like queries per day.

Google's advantages: 25 years of search data, global distribution, massive infrastructure—aren't easily replicated.

Industry specific variations

The Ahrefs data reveals that AI search impact varies significantly by industry:

Reference- and research-heavy industries see the highest AI search usage, while transactional categories like shopping and food remain firmly in Google's territory.

If your website focuses on educational content, technical documentation, or B2B services, you're more likely to see meaningful AI referral traffic. If you're running an ecommerce store, optimizing for Google remains your priority.

What this means for your website

So, where does this leave website owners trying to plan their strategy? Here's a balanced take:

Don't panic about Google

Google isn't dying. It's not even really shrinking in absolute terms—its search volume grew 21.64% in 2024. The company continues to dominate transactional and commercial queries, which are typically the most valuable for businesses.

Your existing SEO fundamentals still matter. Quality content still matters. Site speed still matters.

Don't ignore AI search either

That said, AI search is growing from a very small base at a very fast rate. The websites that start optimizing for AI platforms now will have advantages as these platforms mature.

This means thinking about structured content, clear factual information, and citation-worthy resources. AI tools are increasingly part of how people discover and evaluate information, even if they're not replacing Google wholesale.

Diversify your traffic sources

The most innovative approach is to treat AI search as one part of a diversified traffic strategy. Don't abandon Google. Don't ignore AI. Build direct relationships with your audience through email, community, and brand recognition so you're not entirely dependent on any single discovery platform.

What should you concentrate on?

Is ChatGPT really taking over search? The honest answer is: not yet, but the trajectory matters.

ChatGPT and other AI platforms are growing rapidly from a small base. They're genuinely changing how some users seek information, particularly for research and creative tasks. Google has acknowledged the competitive threat at the highest levels.

But the "Google is dead" narrative dramatically overstates the current reality. Google remains 160 times larger by referral traffic and processes 373 times more search-like queries. Most importantly, behavioral data shows users treat these platforms as complements rather than substitutes.

For website owners, the practical implication is balance. Keep doing what works for Google. Start experimenting with what might work for AI. And remember that the search landscape is constantly evolving—the best strategy is one that adapts with it.